TG-05 Chair Running Sheet

Published

June 10, 2026

Scientific Committee Workshop 17 preparation — chair-only working document

Call: TG-05, Pre-Wageningen Preparation Meeting When: Thursday 11 June 2026, 15:00–16:30 CEST (06:00–07:30 Seattle) Chair: J. Ianelli (JMWG Chair) Companion docs: TG-05 briefing pack · Benchmark→MSE transition (Doc01) · Carryover tracker Updated: 10 June 2026

The one job of this call

Close every open item between the SCW16 benchmark (Lima) and the Wageningen MSE workshop (15–19 June). After this call: no new MPs, no new metrics, no new OM axes. Anything not concluded today is replaced by its documented fallback and flagged — it does not spill into Wageningen.

The transition in one paragraph (say this at the top)

“Three weeks ago in Lima we finished the benchmark — we settled the assessment model structure, the productivity grid, and the reference-point framing. Today is the hand-off: we convert those benchmark outcomes into fixed MSE inputs. We are not re-opening the assessment. We are locking the operating-model conditioning, the candidate MPs, the performance metrics, and the robustness set so that next week in Wageningen we run and decide, not re-specify. Six decisions, ninety minutes, hard time-boxes.”

How to run each item

Each item below: what you’re extracting, who you push, what “done” sounds like, and the fallback you invoke if the slot runs out. Keep the gavel moving.

15:00–15:05 — Open

Confirm attendance and that read-aheads were received. Adopt agenda.
Set the tone: read the transition paragraph above. State the no-reopening rule once, clearly, so you don’t have to relitigate it later.

15:05–15:20 — Conclude the stock-hypothesis treatment

Extract: one decision on how h1 (single-stock) and h2 (two-stock, Stock 2 = Peruvian zone) enter advice — single-stock h1, two-stock h2, or a weighted combination.
Push: Chile (Jose, Ignacio) and Peru (Ana) for their positions first; WMR (Iago) on how the choice enters the projection grid.
Done sounds like: “Treatment is X; it enters the OM grid as Y; recorded in Doc01.”
Fallback if stuck: carry both h1 and h2 as parallel reference-set axes into Wageningen and defer the weighting decision to the OM sign-off on Tue 16 Jun. Flag as a risk.

15:20–15:35 — Finalise performance metrics, horizons, risk tolerance

Extract: the signed-off metric list. Conservation: P(B<B_LIM), P(B<B_MSY). Yield and AAV. TAC-stability. Horizons: 5 / 10 / 20 yr. One SPRFMO risk band.
Push: Niels (EU/PFA) for the Commission-decision view on thresholds and risk tolerance — get any objection on the table now, not at Wageningen.
Done sounds like: “Metric list final; horizons 5/10/20; risk band = Z%. No new metrics after today.”
Fallback: adopt the metric list and risk tolerance from the March working-papers plan verbatim; revisit only the horizons live.

15:35–15:55 — Freeze MP specifications (the hard freeze)

Extract: a frozen MP register — one row per MP: data streams, lag/frequency, tuning target, HCR form, Buffer/K60 setting. This is the no-new-MPs gate.
Push: Iago for the register table; Chile/Peru on whether any model-free / OpenMSE MP enters the frozen set versus runs as comparison-only.
Anchor the set (from Paper-03): tracked families are fixed-catch (perfect.sa+fixedC.hcr), shortcut-depletion+hockeystick, CPUE+buffer, shortcut+buffer, SPiCT+buffer. Exploratory (z-score, buffer-delta, multi-index meta, TAC-change caps, banking/borrowing) enter only if a lead commits to tracking them today.
Done sounds like: “Register frozen at N MPs; exploratory variants are comparison-only; Doc03 finalised.”
Fallback: carry the MP set frozen at TG-04; new MPs run side-by-side only, never as SC14 candidates.

15:55–16:15 — Agree the robustness scenario matrix

Extract: reference set vs. robustness set, with pass/fail criteria for advancing to SC14. Axes: ENSO / offshore-drop, catchability, index-bias.
Push: Iago to walk the matrix; Aquiles (INPESCA) on acoustic-modelling sensitivity; Criscely/Gersson on Peru-acoustic and far-north inputs.
Done sounds like: “Reference set = …; robustness set = …; pass/fail = …; signed off in Doc04.”
Fallback: reference set from TG-04 plus the ENSO offshore-drop scenario as the single robustness axis; remaining scenarios flagged as Wageningen-week work.

16:15–16:25 — Cross-platform validation owners

Extract: an owner-and-deadline table for FLR vs. RTMB/OpenMSE — which metrics, on which OM, by whom, by when.
Push: get names. WMR / Chile / Peru each commit a share.
Done sounds like: “Validation owners assigned by name; Doc05 initiated.”
Fallback: if no agreement, you appoint owners by name and confirm in the minutes. Do not leave this open.

16:25–16:30 — Wageningen logistics and close

Extract: trade-off presentation format (Slick / worm / Kobe-style); decision protocol; daily report-out cadence.
Commit: circulate the Wageningen-week agenda within 48 h.
Close on the six decisions — read them back (see below).

Decisions to read back before you close

Stock-hypothesis treatment for advice.
Final metrics + horizons + risk tolerance.
Frozen MP register (data, tuning, HCR, Buffer/K60).
Robustness matrix + pass/fail criteria.
Cross-platform validation owners + timeline.
Wageningen format + decision protocol.

Chairing notes for a 6am call

You have 90 min of agenda in a 2-hour block. Use the spare 30 min as overflow on items 3 and 4 (the freeze and the robustness matrix) — those are where consensus is most likely to slip. Protect items 1, 2, 5 with the gavel.
Decide vs. document. If an argument is really about SC14 paper content rather than a Wageningen input, name it as such and move it to the carryover tracker. Don’t let SC14 drafting debates eat the freeze.
Watch the time zones. Lima is 08:00, CEST 15:00, you’re at 06:00. Energy is unevenly distributed — front-load the decisions that need the Lima/Peru voices while everyone is sharp.
The freeze is the whole point. If you protect one outcome today, protect the MP-register freeze at 15:35–15:55. Everything downstream at Wageningen assumes it.

Quick links during the call

Full briefing pack & email reminders · Wageningen schedule · Reference points (Paper-02) · MP inventory (Paper-03) · MSE flow (Paper-04)

Names, thresholds, and the risk band marked elsewhere as [confirm] are drawn from the existing SCW17 materials and should be checked against your own notes before the call.