How is the stock doing?
What can the assessment tell managers about stock condition and the pressure from fishing?
A stock assessment brings together catches, surveys and information about the fish with a model of population change. It estimates quantities such as spawning biomass—the amount of mature fish—and fishing mortality, a measure of the rate at which fishing removes fish.
Current SC14 assessment
Read the current SC14 assessment report.
This working assessment presents model results for review. Its draft or proposed-model labels remain as stated in the report. It does not by itself establish agreed Scientific Committee advice.
Report synchronization record.
Technical annex
Read the draft technical annex, including the single-stock and two-stock results, reference-point equations, projection risk tables and an analyst handover with the R calculations. HTML, PDF and Word versions are available within the wiki.
Base-model MCMC uncertainty
Read the separate ADNUTS results document, including biomass and recruitment intervals, 100 Kobe trajectories, and annual probabilities of the green quadrant for 2007–2026. The default run completed, but some parameters have incomplete chain mixing; the uncertainty displays are exploratory. The document includes diagnostics, downloadable trajectories and reproducibility files.
Which indices affect the assessment?
Read the single-stock LOI and LOO comparisons, with static figures and separate summaries for leaving one recent index group in or out. Every panel includes the all-data base model.
The LOI runs give the highest recent biomass when North Chile acoustics or both Peru CPUE series retain their base weights. In LOO, leaving out Chile CPUE raises the 2026 estimate most, while leaving out North Chile acoustics lowers it. Leaving out Offshore or Peru CPUE has smaller effects. These results describe sensitivity of the fitted model and do not establish agreed Committee conclusions.
Editable report source · Synchronization record.
What the research has done
The May benchmark reviewed the data, biological assumptions and assessment methods that support this work. This preparation supports the updated assessment needed to describe the stock’s condition in 2026. Source: JM02.
Why it matters for management
Managers need the updated estimates, their uncertainty and an explanation of how sensitive the conclusions are to important assumptions. A result that changes substantially under a plausible alternative needs a different interpretation from one that remains consistent.
What has been agreed?
The SC14 agenda calls for review of the updated assessment and agreement on stock status for advice to the Commission. The current coverage is assessment preparation and the planned review. Reporting the stock’s condition requires the updated assessment results and the Committee’s agreed interpretation. Source: Doc02, item 5c.
What work remains?
The assessment discussion will be documented from meeting notes and the agreed report. A useful explanation for managers will describe what the assessment shows, what could change that interpretation, and what advice follows.
What should the assessment review cover?
- The data period and assessment used, including changes since the benchmark.
- How well the model explains the observations.
- Whether estimates change when recent data are removed.
- Results when important data choices or assumptions are changed.
- Stock-status measures, reference points and uncertainty.
- The working group’s findings and eventual Scientific Committee advice.