Jack mackerel MSE: technical information and work remaining

SPRFMO

South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation
Jack Mackerel Candidate Management Procedures
Jack mackerel MSE: technical information and work remaining

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1 Scope

This paper allows a reviewer to find the CMP description, OM, performance measure, and results that support the full MSE report and the SC14 questions and tasks paper. It also distinguishes completed work from scientific and practical work that remains.

2 Which files control the results

The official set of files is organized in this order:

  1. the saved source code, CMP settings, simulation settings, and complete runs;
  2. the checked result files, including the 500-draw Slick file;
  3. the CMP list, tables, figures, and scorecard inputs made from those results;
  4. the explanation in the technical and main papers; and
  5. the CMP and annual-use pages made from the same settings.

The current status is documented on the sources and changes page. The named release also has an automatic agreement report with the code versions, model runs, paper files, file fingerprints, numerical comparisons, and products that are no longer current.

3 Where to find the supporting information

Table 1: Where to find the information needed for each decision.
Topic Current detailed source Additional information needed
Development from SCW17 Current report: development Completed for submission: dated candidate translation table and decision status
OM set and simulation Operating models Completed for submission: definitions, analytical role, and proposed decision treatment; SC14 plausibility judgments remain
Index errors Generating OM data indices Core documentation completed: equation, values, coverage, overlap, gaps, and scope; additional index stress tests remain
CMP definitions CMP list and individual CMP pages One table with names, roles, units, settings, and file version
Tuning Candidate procedures Exact quantity used for tuning, result for every CMP, uncertainty due to the number of runs, and effect of small changes to the trigger
Performance measures Performance evaluation Submission framing completed: calculations, periods, directions, weights, exclusions, and preliminary status; final measures await SC14 guidance
Alternative OMs Main findings Completed for submission: 112-row CMP-by-OM/stock table, including om23 and both two-stock components
Banking and borrowing Current analysis Matched with/without comparison using identical OM draws before implementation conclusions
Annual calculation Annual workflow and input data Complete instructions for calculating advice from every shortlisted CMP
Exceptional circumstances Current framework Indicators, thresholds, false alarms, missed detections, authority, and response options

4 Results to report for each CMP and OM

The current decision table reports dynamic Kobe status, biomass and overfishing risks, catch, and IACC for every CMP and OM or stock-component combination. The complete downloadable table has 112 rows:

Download the CMP-by-OM biological decision table.

The probabilities below are calculated over 2041–2050 from the checked SC14-MSE-2026-RC1 Slick object. SB < 1 means spawning biomass below the draw- and year-specific dynamic \(SB_{\mathrm{MSY}}\); it is a candidate diagnostic, not an agreed \(B_{\mathrm{lim}}\) criterion. Catch is total catch for one-stock OMs and component catch for two-stock OMs. None of the eight CMPs is yet operationally ready for annual use.

Table 2: Complete CMP-by-OM and stock-component biological decision table, 2041–2050.
OM Stock CMP Green % SB<1 % Max annual % Any year % F>1 % Catch IACC
om11 CJM HS+20 61.0 30.2 31.8 45.2 37.0 1570.8 5.5
om11 CJM HS-20 59.2 32.1 33.2 47.2 38.7 1552.0 5.6
om11 CJM HSsym 60.4 30.9 32.0 45.4 37.4 1557.9 5.4
om11 CJM HS-30 60.4 30.6 32.2 46.4 37.5 1568.7 6.0
om11 CJM PR+20 60.3 30.4 32.8 52.0 36.6 1881.5 10.5
om11 CJM PR-20 59.8 29.7 32.2 52.2 36.4 1923.2 10.7
om11 CJM PRsym 59.5 30.5 33.4 52.0 37.5 1914.4 10.1
om11 CJM PR-30 60.6 29.4 30.6 53.2 33.8 1865.6 11.6
om11_1 CJM HS+20 41.2 51.3 54.0 61.2 57.2 1436.4 6.2
om11_1 CJM HS-20 40.6 52.5 55.0 62.2 57.7 1411.2 6.1
om11_1 CJM HSsym 41.5 51.2 53.6 61.0 57.0 1428.5 5.9
om11_1 CJM HS-30 40.8 52.2 54.4 62.4 57.4 1429.9 6.3
om11_1 CJM PR+20 25.7 61.4 68.2 83.2 70.6 1797.1 10.9
om11_1 CJM PR-20 25.3 58.6 67.2 82.8 70.7 1912.3 11.3
om11_1 CJM PRsym 26.0 59.4 67.8 82.2 70.8 1873.6 10.7
om11_1 CJM PR-30 24.7 61.3 66.6 85.0 69.4 1805.4 11.9
om11_2 CJM HS+20 45.2 42.9 48.0 63.8 51.8 1396.8 8.7
om11_2 CJM HS-20 42.8 45.6 53.2 67.2 53.8 1371.9 8.7
om11_2 CJM HSsym 44.6 43.7 48.4 64.0 52.3 1381.8 8.4
om11_2 CJM HS-30 44.4 43.2 51.2 65.2 51.9 1402.0 9.2
om11_2 CJM PR+20 52.9 34.8 40.6 57.2 42.2 1472.5 12.1
om11_2 CJM PR-20 54.5 32.4 38.6 55.8 40.1 1498.3 12.3
om11_2 CJM PRsym 52.4 34.2 39.2 55.8 43.3 1506.5 11.3
om11_2 CJM PR-30 57.5 30.9 39.8 56.2 34.2 1429.0 13.9
om11_3 CJM HS+20 45.9 45.2 49.2 63.8 51.1 1428.0 7.6
om11_3 CJM HS-20 44.1 47.0 50.8 65.6 53.5 1408.0 7.7
om11_3 CJM HSsym 46.1 45.6 48.6 64.0 51.3 1417.4 7.3
om11_3 CJM HS-30 44.2 46.4 51.2 65.6 52.8 1428.1 8.0
om11_3 CJM PR+20 50.9 39.7 42.2 64.4 44.2 1625.8 11.1
om11_3 CJM PR-20 51.5 38.5 40.6 65.0 42.9 1652.3 11.4
om11_3 CJM PRsym 50.4 39.8 42.6 64.6 45.1 1660.4 10.7
om11_3 CJM PR-30 53.1 37.4 39.0 64.8 38.3 1597.4 12.5
om12 CJM HS+20 69.5 23.2 24.6 44.0 28.7 1406.3 8.7
om12 CJM HS-20 68.8 24.0 25.8 46.4 29.0 1391.7 8.7
om12 CJM HSsym 68.5 23.9 25.8 43.6 29.6 1392.7 8.4
om12 CJM HS-30 71.6 21.4 23.6 43.2 26.0 1415.5 9.4
om12 CJM PR+20 73.6 21.4 23.4 40.8 24.2 1437.1 11.8
om12 CJM PR-20 74.3 20.6 22.4 41.2 23.1 1421.4 12.1
om12 CJM PRsym 72.1 22.2 24.4 41.0 25.6 1446.1 11.2
om12 CJM PR-30 78.8 17.1 18.4 38.0 18.6 1387.0 13.9
om13 CJM HS+20 91.4 7.0 8.2 14.6 6.8 1652.1 6.4
om13 CJM HS-20 90.0 8.0 9.2 16.6 7.6 1657.8 6.1
om13 CJM HSsym 90.8 7.4 8.6 14.8 7.5 1650.4 6.1
om13 CJM HS-30 91.3 6.8 8.2 15.0 6.4 1661.4 6.5
om13 CJM PR+20 94.8 4.3 5.8 8.2 4.2 1811.9 10.2
om13 CJM PR-20 96.0 3.4 4.6 7.8 3.1 1814.1 10.0
om13 CJM PRsym 95.1 4.1 5.6 8.6 4.0 1812.0 9.6
om13 CJM PR-30 96.5 2.8 3.8 7.4 2.4 1820.7 11.0
om21 North HS+20 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 216.2 12.3
om21 North HS-20 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 211.3 12.3
om21 North HSsym 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 214.5 12.2
om21 North HS-30 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 213.0 12.2
om21 North PR+20 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 214.8 14.4
om21 North PR-20 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 214.2 14.5
om21 North PRsym 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 215.5 14.2
om21 North PR-30 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 214.2 15.2
om21 Southern HS+20 61.3 23.4 28.0 35.0 29.7 1070.2 4.9
om21 Southern HS-20 43.7 41.0 49.2 55.8 44.5 1061.1 4.9
om21 Southern HSsym 55.9 28.2 34.2 41.6 34.3 1067.5 4.8
om21 Southern HS-30 50.1 33.7 39.4 48.0 39.3 1064.8 4.9
om21 Southern PR+20 91.3 1.6 4.4 7.4 7.8 1049.2 9.1
om21 Southern PR-20 90.4 1.6 4.2 7.2 8.8 1054.8 8.9
om21 Southern PRsym 89.7 2.3 6.6 8.6 9.0 1054.1 8.5
om21 Southern PR-30 90.0 2.0 4.0 8.6 9.1 1062.7 9.7
om21_1 North HS+20 0.0 99.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 230.6 11.2
om21_1 North HS-20 0.0 99.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 229.2 11.2
om21_1 North HSsym 0.0 99.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 230.2 11.2
om21_1 North HS-30 0.0 99.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 229.8 11.2
om21_1 North PR+20 0.0 99.8 99.8 99.8 100.0 221.5 14.0
om21_1 North PR-20 0.0 99.7 99.8 99.8 100.0 221.1 14.0
om21_1 North PRsym 0.0 99.6 99.8 99.8 100.0 220.1 13.5
om21_1 North PR-30 0.0 99.8 99.8 99.8 100.0 226.4 14.9
om21_1 Southern HS+20 45.9 46.1 54.6 62.4 34.4 989.9 5.0
om21_1 Southern HS-20 25.3 69.0 75.2 82.4 49.4 983.7 5.0
om21_1 Southern HSsym 39.1 53.8 62.2 70.0 38.9 987.9 5.0
om21_1 Southern HS-30 31.9 61.6 68.8 76.6 44.2 986.4 5.0
om21_1 Southern PR+20 89.7 3.6 7.0 14.2 8.7 950.6 10.2
om21_1 Southern PR-20 89.3 3.9 7.6 17.0 9.1 948.8 10.1
om21_1 Southern PRsym 88.4 4.4 9.0 17.6 9.6 944.3 9.6
om21_1 Southern PR-30 88.5 4.3 7.4 17.2 9.9 972.0 10.9
om22 North HS+20 16.6 82.8 83.6 83.6 83.0 214.9 11.4
om22 North HS-20 16.3 83.3 84.2 84.2 83.3 215.8 11.3
om22 North HSsym 16.5 82.9 84.0 84.2 83.1 215.0 11.3
om22 North HS-30 16.4 83.1 84.0 84.2 83.2 215.6 11.4
om22 North PR+20 17.1 82.4 82.8 83.6 82.3 201.4 14.7
om22 North PR-20 16.9 82.7 83.0 83.8 82.5 200.6 14.7
om22 North PRsym 17.0 82.7 83.0 83.8 82.4 199.1 14.1
om22 North PR-30 16.9 82.5 83.0 83.8 82.6 208.0 15.6
om22 Southern HS+20 99.9 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.0 959.4 5.0
om22 Southern HS-20 99.1 0.9 2.6 3.8 0.0 969.6 5.0
om22 Southern HSsym 99.8 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.0 962.2 5.0
om22 Southern HS-30 99.6 0.4 1.8 2.2 0.0 966.6 5.0
om22 Southern PR+20 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 892.5 11.0
om22 Southern PR-20 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 890.2 10.9
om22 Southern PRsym 100.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 882.7 10.4
om22 Southern PR-30 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 924.4 11.8
om23 North HS+20 1.1 98.6 99.0 99.0 98.9 4.2 0.6
om23 North HS-20 0.9 98.8 99.0 99.0 99.1 3.2 0.3
om23 North HSsym 1.0 98.7 99.0 99.0 99.0 3.8 0.5
om23 North HS-30 1.0 98.8 99.0 99.0 99.0 3.5 0.4
om23 North PR+20 2.7 96.3 97.4 97.4 97.2 10.3 1.6
om23 North PR-20 2.9 96.2 97.0 97.0 97.1 11.2 1.8
om23 North PRsym 2.7 96.3 97.2 97.2 97.2 10.8 1.7
om23 North PR-30 2.7 96.6 97.2 97.2 97.3 10.1 1.6
om23 Southern HS+20 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1284.5 4.5
om23 Southern HS-20 99.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1304.2 4.3
om23 Southern HSsym 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1291.0 4.4
om23 Southern HS-30 99.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1297.9 4.4
om23 Southern PR+20 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1234.0 6.6
om23 Southern PR-20 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1243.4 6.4
om23 Southern PRsym 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1237.0 6.2
om23 Southern PR-30 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1250.1 6.8

Before a final recommendation, the results package should add criteria based on an agreed \(B_{\mathrm{lim}}\), finalize near- and medium-term decision periods, retain the low-catch and mean-reduction diagnostics, report catch-rate or effort-feasibility measures and the frequency of a binding effort cap, and complete the operational-readiness test.

The finite-run precision analysis also remains. It should distinguish posterior/model uncertainty from future process and observation draws, confirm the use of common draws among CMPs, provide uncertainty intervals for key probabilities, and test whether conclusions change with more simulations or different random seeds.

5 Separate biological requirements from management preferences

The technical paper keeps three steps distinct:

  1. Minimum biological performance: the requirements that determine whether a CMP can advance.
  2. Alternative assumptions: performance and plausibility across alternative OMs, including component-specific outcomes.
  3. Management preferences: trade-offs among candidates that meet the requirements in the first two steps.

The scorecard belongs only in the third step. Its measures, scaling, weights, candidate set, and current comparison tests are saved in downloadable files. The present worked examples show sensitivity to measures and weights and the interactive application recalculates after candidate changes. Sensitivity to OM choice and finite-run random variation remains work before a final recommendation.

6 Spatial structure and movement

The technical paper reports northern and southern components separately for every two-stock OM and shows the regional indices used by the CMP. It explains:

  • the fixed catch splits used to test different assumptions;
  • the split.is method used in the CMP definitions; and
  • any separate northern assessment or management process relevant to interpreting the results.

The allocation work is treated as complete for the present analysis. This section documents what was tested and why; it does not open a new line of allocation analysis. The author’s response to the reviewer provides the interpretation to accompany it.

7 Instructions for annual calculation

Each shortlisted CMP will have one complete set of instructions containing its indicator equation, HCR equation, allocation rule, parameters, data rules, fallback rules, calculation sequence, and ECP interface. A saved retrospective example will include the source data, intermediate values, unrounded advice, annual-limit calculation, allocation, rounding, and final result.

An automatic test will run the example independently and compare every intermediate and final value with saved expected results. Explanatory text may explain the CMP but does not redefine its settings.

8 Work remaining after SC14

Unless completed before submission, the paper records:

  • final operational units, cut-offs, missing/revised-data rules, and rounding;
  • matched banking-and-borrowing evaluation;
  • advice-versus-realized-catch simulation or justification;
  • simulation-precision analysis;
  • final performance measures and agreed biological requirements;
  • tests of whether the ECP detects problems, and rules for who decides what happens next; and
  • an independent check that the annual calculation can be repeated.

Each item should have a named person or group responsible for it, a clear test for completion, and a date for decision before a CMP is recommended for adoption.